HS-LS4-3

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Apply concepts of statistics and probability to support explanations that organisms with an advantageous heritable trait tend to increase in proportion to organisms lacking this trait.

Clarification statement: Emphasis is on analyzing shifts in numerical distribution of traits and using these shifts as evidence to support explanations.

Assessment boundary: Assessment is limited to basic statistical and graphical analysis. Assessment does not include allele frequency calculations.

Performance Level Descriptions

PLDs communicate the knowledge and skills expected of students to demonstrate proficiency in each Learning Standard. NYS assessments classify student performance into one of five levels.

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Level 1: Use a given mathematical representation, from those provided, to identify a pattern in a trait in a population over time.

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Level 2: Use a given mathematical representation to describe a pattern and/or describe a trend in a trait in a population over time.

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Level 3: Apply mathematical concepts to support an explanation and/or identify a pattern to describe a trend in a trait in a population over time (based on environmental factors).

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Level 4: Apply concepts of statistics and probability to support explanations that organisms with an advantageous heritable trait tend to increase in proportion to organisms lacking this trait.

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Level 5: Apply concepts of statistics and probability to support explanations and predict patterns that organisms with an advantageous heritable trait tend to increase in proportion to organisms lacking this trait.

Resources

Examples and discussion of resources for the learning, teaching, and assessment of HS-LS4-3.

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Assessment

What assessment of HS-LS4-3 might look like on a NY state exam.

Exam	Cluster	Question
August 2026	Colorful Guppies	Question 19
	Colorful Guppies	Question 21
January 2026	A Hard Pest to Manage	Question 19
August 2025	Strategies for Survival in Different Animal Species	Question 8
June 2025	Keystone Species: Black-Tailed Prairie Dogs	Question 40

NGSS Dimensions

Performance expectation HS-LS4-3 was developed using the following elements from the NRC document A Framework for K-12 Science Education:

Science and Engineering Practices

• Analyzing and Interpreting Data
  • Apply concepts of statistics and probability (including determining function fits to data, slope, intercept, and correlation coefficient for linear fits) to scientific and engineering questions and problems, using digital tools when feasible.

Disciplinary Core Ideas

• LS4.B: Natural Selection
  • Natural selection occurs only if there is both (1) variation in the genetic information between organisms in a population and (2) variation in the expression of that genetic information – that is, trait variation – that leads to differences in performance among individuals.
  • The traits that positively affect survival are more likely to be reproduced and thus are more common in the population.
• LS4.C: Adaptation
  • Natural selection leads to adaptation that is, to a population dominated by organisms that are anatomically, behaviorally, and physiologically well suited to survive and reproduce in a specific environment. That is, the differential survival and reproduction of organisms in a population that have an advantageous heritable trait leads to an increase in the proportion of individuals in future generations that have the trait and to a decrease in the proportion of individuals that do not.
  • Adaptation also means that the distribution of traits in a population can change when conditions change.

Crosscutting Concepts

• Patterns
  • Different patterns may be observed at each of the scales at which a system is studied and can provide evidence for causality in explanations of phenomena.

Page contributors: Conrad Richman, Caroline Leonard

Biology | HS. Natural Selection and Evolution