HS-ESS3-5

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Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems.

Clarification statement: Examples of evidence, for both data and climate model outputs, are for climate changes (such as precipitation and temperature) and their associated impacts (such as on sea level, glacial ice volumes, or atmosphere and ocean composition).

Assessment boundary: Assessment is limited to one example of a climate change and its associated impacts.

Regents Exam Questions

Released New York State Regents exam questions that assess HS-ESS3-5 are listed here by exam and question cluster. Each link opens the question with its answer key.

Exam	Cluster	Question
August 2026 Earth and Space Sciences Regents	Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’pai Volcano	Question 45
January 2026 Earth and Space Sciences Regents	Greenland's Glacial Ice	Question 28
	Greenland's Glacial Ice	Question 30
	Greenland's Glacial Ice	Question 32
June 2025 Earth and Space Sciences Regents	Modeling Earth Systems to Understand Global Climate	Question 8
	Modeling Earth Systems to Understand Global Climate	Question 10
	The Carbon Cycle	Question 15
	Ghost Forests	Question 38
Earth and Space Sciences sample clusters (Fall 2024)	Earth's Climate	Question 4

Vocabulary

Terms from the Earth & Space Science Glossary that come from this standard or from the released exam questions that assess it.

From this standard

• argument
• atmosphere
• climate change
• composition
• design solution
• Earth
• evidence-based forecast
• geoscience data
• glacial ice volumes
• global climate models
• human impacts
• model
• new technologies
• ocean
• precipitation
• regional climate change
• sea level

From released exam questions

• biodiversity – June 2025
• density – Jan 2026
• emissions – June 2025
• fossil fuels – Aug 2026
• ghost forest – June 2025
• glacial ice – Jan 2026
• glaciers – June 2025
• greenhouse gas emissions – June 2025
• greenhouse gases – June 2025
• ground vegetation – June 2025
• high tide – June 2025
• humidity – June 2025
• ice – Jan 2026, Sample 2024
• ice extent – Sample 2024
• ice sheet – Jan 2026
• mass – Jan 2026
• ocean circulation – June 2025
• ocean currents – Jan 2026
• runoff – June 2025
• salinity – Jan 2026
• satellites – Aug 2026
• soil erosion – June 2025
• solar energy – June 2025
• surface ocean currents – June 2025
• surface temperature – Aug 2026, June 2025
• water vapor – Aug 2026

Performance Level Descriptions

Every Regents exam question on HS-ESS3-5 is written to match one of the performance level descriptions (PLDs) below.

Level 1: Given geoscience data or the results from a global climate model, or a given evidence‐based claim (forecast) of the current rate of global or regional climate change, identify an associated future impact to an Earth system. January 2026 Question 32, June 2025 Question 38, June 2025 Question 8

Level 2: Use geoscience data and/or the results from a global climate model, to identify the evidence-based claim (forecast), from those provided, of the current rate of global or regional climate change and/or identify an associated future impact to an Earth system. January 2026 Question 28, January 2026 Question 30, June 2025 Question 4, June 2025 Question 10

Level 3: Analyze geoscience data or the results from a global climate model to make an evidence-based claim (forecast) of the current rate of global or regional climate change and/or an associated future impact to an Earth system. August 2026 Question 45, June 2025 Question 15

Level 4: Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence‐based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems.

Level 5: Collect and analyze geoscience data from global climate models to make valid and reliable scientific claims. Use those claims to determine an optimal design solution to slow the rate of climate change and its associated future impacts to Earth systems.

Notice: PLD levels!

Resources

Examples and discussion of resources for the learning, teaching, and assessment of HS-ESS3-5.

This section could be expanded upon. You can help out by adding to this section.

NGSS Dimensions

Performance expectation HS-ESS3-5 was developed using the following elements from the NRC document A Framework for K-12 Science Education:

Science and Engineering Practices

• Analyzing and interpreting data: Analyze data using tools, technologies and/or models (e.g., computational or mathematical) in order to make valid and reliable scientific claims or determine optimal design solution.
• Scientific Investigations Use a Variety of Methods: Science investigations use diverse methods and do not always use the same set of procedures to obtain data.
• Scientific Investigations Use a Variety of Methods: New technologies advance scientific knowledge.
• Scientific Knowledge is Based on Empirical Evidence: Science knowledge is based on empirical evidence.
• Scientific Knowledge is Based on Empirical Evidence: Science arguments are strengthened by multiple lines of evidence supporting a single explanation.

Disciplinary Core Ideas

• Global climate change: Though the magnitudes of human impacts are greater than they have ever been, so too are human abilities to model, predict, and manage current and future impacts.

Crosscutting Concepts

• Stability and change: Change and rates of change can be quantified and modeled over very short or very long periods of time. Some system changes are irreversible.

Page contributors: Conrad Richman, Caroline Leonard

Earth and Space Science | HS. Weather and Climate